Project Description

Identifying the most favorable weather window to set sails

One of the leading maritime insurance companies requested NOVELTIS to identify the most favorable time slots for a ship to set sail, in order to spare a fragile and precious cargo.

The Ariane Group was contemplating to ship an element of its rocket to Le Havre by sea. Given the very high value of the cargo and its uniqueness, the insurance company contacted NOVELTIS to determine the time slot that would allow the calmest navigation on a 4 day horizon.

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Identifying the most favorable weather window to set sails

One of the leading maritime insurance companies requested NOVELTIS to identify the most favorable time slots for a ship to set sail, in order to spare a fragile and precious cargo.

Project details

Categories:

Share this project:

Contact-us
The Ariane Group was contemplating to ship an element of its rocket to Le Havre by sea. Given the very high value of the cargo and its uniqueness, the insurance company contacted NOVELTIS to determine the time slot that would allow the calmest navigation on a 4 day horizon.
Routing forecast

Cargo ship in charge of the precious cargo

All sea states and wind conditions, obtained from various models were evaluated on an array of points representing the ship’s route. Starting times were tested for departures every 3 hours. The boats’s speed was taken into account to calculate the weather and sea state situation when it would reach each point.

Moyens employés

The elaboration and use of various weather forecasting models enabled NOVELTIS to calculate the wind speed, its direction and the waves height on several points along the ship’s route. On this basis, the starting slot that was minimising the waves height and the wind speed and that was optimizing the wind direction was selected, thanks to a mutivariate analysis.

This forecast based on the 3 main navigation factors can be completed with more precise indicators of dangerousness that are provided by NOVELTIS for ensuring optimal and secure navigation, such as: waves steepness (which can generate more shocks and slow the ship down), indicator of cross seas that helps avoiding difficult navigation, and the probability of occurrence of rogue waves (sudden waves that can reach more than 20m in height) which helps deciding the ship rerouting in the right time and place.

Résultats

By selecting the most favorable time slot with regards to sea states and weather forecast, the first officer of the cargo ship opted for a calmer crossing, with moderate and favorable winds. As a matter of fact, without the forecast from NOVELTIS, he would have faced waves up to 5.40 m and a cross wind of over 50 km/h, meaning a rough navigation and risks of movements or induced chocks for the cargo. Through delaying his departure time, he was able to find much more favorable sailing conditions, with waves that did not exceed 3 meters and a mild downwind of 35 km/h. Thus he was able to save fuel and CO2. His customer Ariane Group avoided the risk of shocks to its sensitive cargo. The marine insurance company reduced dramatically the risks of insurance claims on a very high value cargo.